Speaker: Matthew Ryan (Department of Economics)
Topic: Belief Functions (Part II)
When: 2:30-3:30, Tuesday 22 October
Where: Room 5115, OGGB

Belief functions generalise the notion of probability by relaxing additivity, while retaining a weaker property called infinite monotonicity. Belief functions allow us to quantify beliefs in a manner which is sensitive to the strength of the evidential support. I’ll focus on how to update such beliefs; more generally, how to perform statistical inference when the prior is described by a belief function. Many puzzles and problems arise when considering the issue of updating/inference. This talk will be informal (i.e., ill-prepared!) and will raise questions rather than provide answers.