Speaker: Matthew Ryan (Economics)
Topic: Belief Functions (Part I)
When: 2:30-3:30, Tuesday 8 October
Where: Room 5115, OGGB

Belief functions are used to quantify degrees of belief. They provide a more flexible alternative to the usual (in Economics) quantification by probabilities. Any probability is a belief function, but not conversely. This talk will introduce belief functions and discuss an unexpected connection between the mathematics of belief functions and David Kreps’ (1979) famous axiomatisation of expected indirect utility. In a subsequent talk, I will discuss the updating of belief functions – how to perform statistical inference when the prior is described by a belief function.